2025-0171 Operational Analyst Support for SHAPE Iraq Assessment (NS) - MON 9 Jun

Deadline Date: Monday 9 June 2025

Requirement: Operational Analyst Support to SHAPE Strategic Assessments of Iraq Q3 2025

Location: Off-Site

Note: Please refer to your Subcontract Agreement, article 6.4.1.a, which states “Off-Site Discount: 5% (this discount is applicable to all requirements, and applies when the assigned personnel are permitted to work Off-Site, such as at- home)". Please be sure to price this discount in your overall price proposal when submitting bids against off-site RFQs

Period of Performance: BASE 2025: As soon as possible, but beginning no later than 07/07/2025 and completing no later than 31/12/2025, with the possibility to exercise the following options:

Option 2026 Q1: 01/01/2026 – 30/06/2026

Option 2026 Q3: 01/07/2026 – 31/12/2026

Option 2027 Q1: 01/01/2027 – 30/06/2027

Option 2027 Q3: 01/07/2027 – 31/12/2027

Option 2028 Q1: 01/01/2028 – 30/06/2028

Option 2028 Q3: 01/07/2028 – 31/12/2028

Required Security Clearance: NATO SECRET

1. INTRODUCTION

NCIA Operational Analysis Centre (OAC) supports SHAPE J5 in their production of strategic assessments of the operating environment for the NATO Mission Iraq (NMI) which inform SHAPE’s Periodic Mission Review (PMR). As part of the NMI Strategic Assessment Capability (NMI SAC) project, NCIA delivers to SHAPE an independent civilian experts’ strategic assessments and supports the delivery of a nationwide survey of Iraqi public opinion (INPOR).

NCIA OAC requires operational analyst services to support the production of NMI SAC deliverables bi-annually – initially deliverables for the autumn 2025 (Quarter 3/Quarter 4) strategic assessment cycle, and optionally for spring (Q1) and autumn (Q3) in 2026-2028.

The requirement includes support to the production of draft strategic assessment reports, support to NMI SAC workshop conduct, and support to INPOR survey analysis and reporting. The nature of the work requires it be delivered by a candidate with recent relevant experience producing strategic assessments to support NATO Mission Iraq.

2. OBJECTIVES

Under the direction / guidance of the local NCIA Point of Contact, the objectives of the service for each bi-annual strategic assessment cycle are:

1. Produce draft NMISAC strategic assessment report, based on research and analysis of open source and NATO data sources in preparation for the NMI SAC Workshop at SHAPE in Mons, BE.

2. Provide on-site analytical and logistical support to the execution of the NMI SAC Workshop, including support to the delivery of workshop outbrief and executive summary, and the finalization of the post-workshop NMI SAC strategic assessment report.

3. Provide operational analyst support to the review of INPOR public opinion polling data, and its integration into NMI SAC products.

In Q3 2025, the NMI SAC workshop will be held 02-04 September 2025. In option years, workshops are typically held in late February/early March and late August/early September.

3. SCOPE OF WORK

The contractor shall act as an Operational Analyst, conducting analysis that contributes to strategic assessments for NATO Mission Iraq.

The contractor shall:

- Conduct research and analysis from open source data and information to inform assessments of strategic change in the operating environment for NATO Mission Iraq during the period March through August 2025.

- Coordinate with the project team on producing a draft pre-workshop strategic assessment report, including drafting the report body for the sections related to political dynamics, security sector dynamics, and supporting the drafting of sections related to regional dynamics, social dynamics, and the Iraqi economy.

- Provide analytical and logistical support the execution of the NMI SAC workshop. Analytical support includes the compilation of workshop notes, and contributions to workshop discussion and moderation. Logistical support includes supporting logistical movements, facilities, Information Technology enablers, and coordination with local staff in the delivery of the workshop.

- Contribute to the production of the final post-workshop strategic assessment report, focusing on integration of inputs from SME reports commissioned for the project as well as points from the NMI SAC workshop discussions and findings.

- Review INPOR polling data, and analysis reports, and extract and integrate relevant information into the strategic assessment report. This may involve analysis of INPOR raw data, data tables, or other INPOR products.

- Conduct editorial and formatting reviews of the strategic assessment report drafts, as well as SME reports commissioned for the project to ensure a production-ready final report.

4. DELIVERABLES

The following deliverables are required for each strategic assessment cycle:

1) Delivery of a draft pre-workshop strategic assessment report (approx. 80-100 pages), which summaries changes in political, security sector, regional, social, and economic factors within NMI’s operating environment, and which integrates inputs from subject matter expert (SME) reports commissioned by the project.

2) On-site support to the NMI SAC Workshop held at SHAPE in Mons, Belgium. Support to include analytical support to workshop discussion mediation, as well as logistical support to workshop execution. In 2025, the workshop is to be held 2-4 September.

3) Deliver of a final post-workshop strategic assessment report draft, integrating workshop comments and interpretation from SME’s.

4) A summary of key results from INPOR survey data, and their integration into the final strategic assessment report.

In option years, cycles are expected in Q1, and Q3, with workshops taking place in late February, and early September respectively. Deliverable dates are scheduled based on workshop dates, which will be confirmed no less than 3 months in advance of each workshop.

2025 Deliverables

Deliverable 01: Pre-workshop draft strategic assessment report: 19 August 2025

Deliverable 02: On-site Workshop support 04: September 2025

Deliverable 03: Final strategic assessment report: 11 September 2025

Deliverable 04: Deliverable INPOR survey findings integration: 26 August 2025

Deliverables for each bi-annual strategic assessment cycle, for 2026-2028 option years

Deliverable 01: Pre-workshop draft strategic assessment report: Two weeks before workshop start

Deliverable 02: On-site Workshop support: Workshops are typically held in late February/early March and late August/early September.

Deliverable 03: Final strategic assessment report: One week after end of workshop

Deliverable 04: INPOR survey findings integration: One week before workshop start for options

5. PAYMENT SCHEDULE

Lump sum payment will be issued at the end of each Cycle, due no later than end Q3 2025 and for option years end Q1 and end Q3. Payment shall be dependent upon successful acceptance of deliverables as described above, as confirmed by the NCIA Point of Contact and as per the Delivery Acceptance Sheet at Annex B.

6. COORDINATION AND REPORTING

The Contractor shall work principally off-site.

The contractor shall report to NCIA Operational Analysis Centre, with Philip Eles as the main point of contact for the work.

The Contractor shall participate in bi-weekly status update meetings via electronic means using Conference Call capabilities, or physically in the office (when on site).

7. SCHEDULE

This task order will be active immediately after signing of the contract by both parties.

The period of performance is 07 July 2025 and will end no later than 31 December 2025.

8. SECURITY

The duties described in this SOW require a valid NATO SECRET security clearance prior to the start of the engagement.

9. CONSTRAINTS

All the documentation delivered under this statement of work will be based on NCI Agency templates or as agreed with project point of contact.

ONE single contractor must accomplish this work.

10. PRACTICAL ARRANGEMENTS

The contractor is expected to work off site. Occasional Work on-site may also be arranged with the project manager.

Travel to other NATO and commercial sites will be required in order to complete the tasks.

Travel expenses will be handled separately– these costs fall outside the Not-To-Exceed financial limit.

Travel arrangements will be the responsibility of the contractor and the expenses will be reimbursed in accordance with Article 5.5 of AAS Framework Contract and within the limits of the NCIA Travel Directive.

NCIA will equip the contractor with NR CIS (Laptop).

11. SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS AND QUALIFICATIONS

[See Requirements]

Requirements

8. SECURITY

• The duties described in this SOW require a valid NATO SECRET security clearance prior to the start of the engagement.

11. SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS AND QUALIFICATIONS

The candidate must demonstrate the following experience and expertise:

• At least three years of experience producing strategic assessments reports for NATO related to NATO Mission Iraq;
• At least three years of experience supporting strategic assessment workshops for SHAPE
• At least three years of experience working with Iraqi public opinion data and integrating results into strategic assessment reports;
• Extensive understanding of the existing range of reporting sources related to Iraqi political, security sector, regional, social, and economic information;
• Strong understanding of the current political, security sector, regional, social, and economic aspects of the current environment in Iraq;
• Strong report writing skills related to production of strategic assessments (examples may be requested)
• Strong research skills
• Demonstrated ability to work independently
• Demonstrated experience working with NATO ACO and ACT